Null Hypothesis And Alternative Hypothesis Philosophy Essay

Null Hypothesis And Alternative Hypothesis Philosophy Essay In order to survive in the business world, business units today are forced to innovate and launch the products immediately in the market. But this is easier said than done. Numerous factors come into the picture for this to materialise. Notably among them is the fact that too much cost factor which comes into the picture. For the product launching is well planned and thought off activity. The activities include conducting market surveys which in plain sense means that the business units are required to conduct or determine the feasibility of the new product within a limited area and then based on the results they take further course of action i.e. go ahead with the launch of the product or to drop the project altogether. In other words, business units conduct sample surveys i.e. obtaining the response on a small piece of the larger picture and then based on the results of the small piece, estimate the likely response on the larger piece of the picture. The small piece is known as the sample and the larger piece is known as the population. Thus the concept of sample and population plays a vital role and assists the management in taking core decisions which may or not prove fruitful in the survival of the business. In order, to take decisions based on the sample and to estimate the population parameters business units are required to start with some of the assumptions or the hypothesis. And, based on assumptions or hypothesis about the population it is tested meaning that whatever the assumption that they started with, whether the assumption was correct or incorrect. Thus we have hypothesis testing. Let us take an example to illustrate what has been said above. Suppose, the business units want to bring in a new product in the market which will increase the market share and hence the profitability of the business unit. In this case, the hypothesis would be introduction of new product will increase the profitability and based on this the survey would be conducted. The results of analysis of the data will reveal whether the hypothesis was correct or incorrect. This unit will cover the basics of hypothesis and its testing; the steps required to test the hypothesis. This unit will also cover the types and characteristics of hypothesis and the like. Objectives After studying this unit, the reader will be able to: Understand the basic concepts of hypothesis Understand the various types and the characteristics of hypothesis Understand the steps involved in the testing of hypothesis Understand the two tailed and the one tailed tests involved in the testing of hypothesis Understand the criterion when to accept or when to reject the hypothesis Understand the manner in which decisions are to be taken on the basis of the results arrived during the process of testing of hypothesis 6.2 Defining Hypothesis In order to discuss the basics of hypothesis testing in detail let us now, define what is meant by hypothesis. Simply speaking, hypothesis is a unit of the inferential statistics (i.e. the branch of statistics which is used to infer information on the collected data) which is used to test a claim about the larger portion (which is called population) based on the data collected from the smaller part known as sample. In other words hypothesis testing is the process of staking claim based on the values obtained from the sample. Let us take an example in order to drive home the point illustrated above. A manufacturer involved in the manufacturing of types claims that the average life of their tires will last at least 70,000 kms. We want to test the claim made by the manufacturer. The process we will adopt is to take a sample of tires, run them until they see how many kms. on average they have lasted. If the sample has lasted over 70,000 kms, then we do have the reason to believe that the claim is correct and that all the other tires they produce will also last 70,000 kms. miles. In arriving at this conclusion, we may commit the following We may incorrectly say the tires do not last at least 70,000 kms when in fact they do last We may incorrectly say the tires do last at least 70,000 kms when in fact they do not Thus, we may commit some errors during the process of staking the claim to the hypothesis we have formulated. This aspect will be covered in next section Self Assessment Questions True or False Managers are required to make decisions Hypothesis is an assumption about something which is taken to be true We may commit some errors in the process of testing of hypothesis 6.3 Characteristics of Hypothesis Having understood the definition of hypothesis, let us now understand the characteristics of hypothesis. The following are the characteristics of hypothesis. A hypothesis is based on reasoning which appears to be justified This simply means that the hypothesis we have formulated should be based on the previous research and the hypothesis should follow the most likely outcome not the exceptional outcome. For example, we should form the hypothesis regarding the launching of new product on the basis of the previous data which was analysed and which prompted us to take further steps such as market research and the like A hypothesis should provide a reasonable explanation for the outcome which is to be predicted This means that the hypothesis formulated should not focus on the unrealistic outcome i.e. the hypothesis should be based on the realistic scenario. For example, an hypothesis such as our new software will surpass the sales of the software dealer who is leading the software market or that our software will sell very well on the surface of the moon. All these are unrealistic. A hypothesis should clearly state the relationship between the variables that are defined This simply means that the hypothesis should not be vague. It should be in plain simple terms and in a language which is simple to understand. For example, the hypothesis that the MIS report will be printed somewhat in 3 to 4 minutes is ambiguous and confusing. A hypothesis defines the variables measurable terms This means that the hypothesis focus on the aspects such as who all would be affected; who are the players in the process and the like. For example, hypothesis, that the product will work correctly for 2 months for small children. A hypothesis is testable in a given or sufficient amount of time This means that the hypothesis is tested within a finite amount of time. An hypothesis which cannot be tested within the finite amount of time will never be tested nor accepted Self Assessment Questions Fill in the blanks A hypothesis is _________ in a given period of ______________ Hypothesis defines __________ in measurable terms Hypothesis should define the ________ between the variables 6.4 Types of Hypothesis Having understood the basic terminology of hypothesis let us now discuss the types of hypothesis. Though we have just scratched the types of hypothesis, let us now go deeper into the detail of types of hypothesis. Hypothesis are of various types. Some of them are discussed below Null hypothesis Alternate hypothesis Simple Hypothesis Complex hypothesis Null Hypothesis This hypothesis is formulated when the statistician believes that there is no relationship between two variables or when there is insufficient information to formulate a state a research hypothesis. It is denoted by H0 Alternate hypothesis This hypothesis is the opposite of Null hypothesis. it is formulated then the researcher believes that there is sufficient information to believe that there is relationship between the variables. It is represented as H1 or H µ Simple hypothesis This hypothesis predicts the relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable. Both the variables must be single variables    Complex hypothesis This hypothesis is used to predict the relationship between two or more independent variables and two or more dependent variables Examples of different types of Hypothesis Health related education programmes influence the number of people who smoke Newspapers affects peoples living standard Absenteeism in classes affects exam scores Lower levels of exercise is responsible for increase in weight Self Assessment Questions True or False Complex hypothesis is used to predict the relationship between two or more independent variable with two or more dependent variables Alternate hypothesis is opposite to null hypothesis 6.5 Hypothesis Testing Having understood the various types of hypothesis let us dwell on the important point of hypothesis testing. As stated above hypothesis means that we verify the claim on the larger unit based on the data and the results obtained by performing statistical tests on the data. let us now look at the steps involved in the testing of hypothesis. the following are the steps : Describe in a statement about the population characteristic for which the hypotheses is to be tested State the null hypothesis and depict as Ho State the alternative hypothesis depict it as H1 or Ha Identify and display the test statistic that will be used Identify the region of rejection region Is it on the upper, lower, or on the two-tailed test Determine the critical value that will be associated as a, the level of significance at which the test is to be conducted Compute the quantities in the test statistic State the conclusion based on the computed statistics meaning that it is now to be decided as to whether reject the null hypothesis, Ho, or accept the alternate hypothesis. The conclusion is dependent on the level of significance of the test. Figure 1 provides a graphical view of the steps involved in the testing of hypothesis Figure 1 Steps involved in the testing of hypothesis 6.6 Difference between Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis In the previous units we have understood the basics of null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis, let us now discuss the difference between these types of hypothesis. the following are the differences Null hypothesis is used to describe the prediction while alternative hypothesis describes other possible outcomes. For example, if we predict A is related to B which is null hypothesis while the alternative hypothesis will be A is not related to B meaning that A can be teacher of B, A can be mentor of B and so on The alternative hypothesis can be negative but it does not necessarily mean a negation of null hypothesis but rather that it is a measure of finding out whether the null hypothesis is true or not meaning that whether it should be accepted or it should be rejected Alternative hypothesis provides an opportunity to look at other things and other possibilities where as null hypothesis provides the presence or absence of the same meaning that when we deal with null hypothesis our focus becomes restricted while in the case of alternative hypothesis our focus needs to be wider 6.7 Decision Rule Decision rules are the procedures that enable us to determine whether the findings of the observed samples are in sharp contradiction i.e. there is significant difference from the results that were expected and which will thus help us to decide whether to accept or reject hypotheses are called rules of decision or simply decision rules. Let us take an example in order to illustrate what has been said with regard to decision rule. Suppose that we toss a coin 50 times and get head 42 times and if we had the null hypothesis that the coir is fair. Now in this scenario, there is sufficient reason to believe that the coin is biased based on the output obtained although we may be wrong in this manner. In the current scenario, the observations are saying something else in comparison to our hypothesis, hence, we are in a dilemma as to accept or reject the hypothesis. Procedures , which assist us in deciding whether to accept or reject the hypothesis when there is significant difference between the observed and the stated are know an Decision Rules. Type I and Type II errors It is in situations like the above, that we may commit errors or mistakes which are classified as Type I or Type II errors. Type I error is when we reject the hypothesis when it should have been accepted Type II error is when we accept a hypothesis when it should have been rejected From the above definitions, in both the cases a wrong decision has been made. Hence, it becomes imperative that we need to minimize the errors while making decisions. Level of Significance While testing the given hypothesis the maximum risk that we can take for Type I error is called the level of signi ¬Ã‚ cance of the test. This is denoted by Greek letter Alpha ÃŽÂ ±. It is decided before hand so that they do not influence the choice of our decisions. 6.8 Two tailed and one tailed tests In order to understand the concept of two tailed and one tailed tests, consider the following scenario. Let us have a null hypothesis H0  and an alternative hypothesis H1. We want to conduct the test and determine whether we should reject the null hypothesis in favour of alternative hypothesis. Thus, we have two different types of test which can be performed viz. One Tailed test and Two Tailed test One-tailed  test seeks to look for an increase or decrease in the parameter under consideration while two-tailed  test seeks to look for any change in the parameter We can carry out the test at any level 1%, 5% or 10% are the common levels. For example, when we perform the test at a 5% level it means that there is a 5% chance of wrongly rejecting H0 that is null hypothesis on the other hand If we perform the test at the 5% level and decide to reject the null hypothesis, we say that there is a significant evidence at 5% to suggest that the hypothesis is false. One-Tailed Test For the one tailed test we choose a critical region. In a one-tailed test, the critical region will have one part. If the sample value lies in this region, we will reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative On the other hand , if we want to look for definite decrease. Then the critical region will be to the left. Example Suppose we are given that in a  Poisson distribution  and we want to test hypothesis on the mean,  based upon a sample of observation 3. Suppose the hypotheses are: H0:  l  = 9   H1:  l   We want to test if it is reasonable for the value observed to be 3 to have been derived from Poisson distribution with having a parameter value of 9. What is the probability that the value as low as 3 has come from a Poisson distribution have the value 9? P(X  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¤ 3) = 0.0212 (this has been obtained from Poisson table) The probability is less than 0.05, which means that there is less than a 5% chance that the value has come from a Poisson(3) distribution. The null hypothesis should be rejected in favour of the alternative at the 5% level. Two-Tailed Test In a two-tailed test, we look for either an increase or a decrease. Hence, for example, H0  might be that the mean is equal to 9 (as before). This time, however, H1  would be that the mean is not equal to 9. So, In this case, therefore, the critical region has two parts: Example Lets test the parameter p of a  Binomial distribution  at the 10% level. Suppose a coin is tossed 10 times and we get 7 heads. We want to test whether or not the coin is fair. If the coin is fair, p = 0.5 . Put this as the null hypothesis: H0: p = 0.5 H1: p à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚   0.5 Because this is a 2-tailed test, the critical region also has two parts. Half of the critical region is to in the right and other half is in the left. So the critical region contains both the top 5% of the distribution and the bottom 5% of the distribution (as we are testing at the 10% level). If H0  is true, X ~ Bin(10, 0.5). If the null hypothesis is true, what is the probability that X is 7 or above? P(X à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥ 7) = 1 P(X Is this in the critical region? No- because the probability that X is at least 7 is not less than 0.05 (5%), which is what we need it to be. So there is no significant evidence to reject the null hypothesis at 10% level of significance 6.9 Procedure of Hypothesis testing Having understood the basics of hypothesis, let us now dwell on the procedure which is to be followed in the testing of hypothesis. The following are the steps that are to be followed. State null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis State the level of significance. This gives us the tabulated values Select the appropriate test Calculate the required values for the test Conduct the test Draw the conclusions 6.10 Summary A hypothesis is necessary in todays business world as the managers are required to take decisions and they need to have a starting point Hypothesis is widely used in the conduct of market surveys The concept of sample and population is widely used in the testing of hypothesis Hypothesis is a unit of inferential statistics Hypothesis is based on reasoning which appears to be justified Null hypothesis is formed when there is n relationship between the variables Alternative hypothesis is the reverse of null hypothesis Decisions rules provide the basis for accepting the or rejecting the hypothesis Type I error is when we reject the hypothesis when it should have been accepted Type II error is when we accept the hypothesis when we should have rejected it 6.11 Terminal Questions What is the significance of hypothesis testing? What is meant by Type I and Type II errors? Explain with examples What is the difference between Null hypothesis and Alternative hypothesis? Explain the steps involved in the testing of hypothesis. 6.12 Answers Self Assessment Questions True False True Testable Time Variables Relationship True True 6.13 Suggested Reading Books Testing statistical hypothesis, Lehmann, Joseph Hypothesis testing with SPSS, Jim Mirabella Fundamentals of Statistics, Michael Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics, S.C. Gupta Fundamentals of Statistics, Trueman Lee Kelly Introductory Probability And Statistical Applications, Meyer Fundamental of Statistics, Vol II, Goon, Gupta and Dagupta An Outline of Statistical Theory, Vol I, Goon, Gupta and Dagupta A Basic Course in Statistics, Clarke, Geoffrey and Cooke, John Wiley Sons Basic Statistics, Nagar Das Quantitative Techniques for Decision Making, Anand Sharma Statistics for economists: A beginning, John E. Floyd The Elements of Statistical Learning, Trevor Hastie, Jerome Friedman. Introduction to Statistical Thought, Michael Lavine Web Resources en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_hypothesis_testing www.slideshare.net/vikramlawand/test-of-hypothesis www.sagepub.com/upm-data/40007_Chapter8.pdf www.iasri.res.in/ebook//2/4-TEST%20OF%20HYPOTHESIS.pdf www.math.uah.edu/stat/hypothesis/index.html www.angelfire.com/wv/bwhomedir/notes/z_and_t_tests.pdf www.20bits.com/article/hypothesis-testing-the-basics www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v11n3/java/Hypothesis/ math.bu.edu/people/nkatenka/MA113/Lecture_10_Notes.pdf www.pstcc.edu/facstaff/jwlamb/Math1530/7.2rvsd.ppt 6.14 Glossary Aggregate  It is the collection of small units which results in one complete entity. For example the aggregation of the total inhabitants of towns and villages and mega cities results in the population of the country Alpha Level  The probability that the statistical test will find difference between the groups which is significant when there are none. This is also termed as the probability of making a Type I error or as the significance level of statistical test. Alternative Hypothesis  The hypothesis that states that there is some difference between two or more groups. It is the alternative to null hypothesis, which states that there is no difference among the groups. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)  A test that determines whether the means of two or more groups is significantly different. Association  It is a type of relationship between objects or variables. Average  A single value which may be mean, median or mode and represents the typical, normal, or the middle value of a given set of data. Axiom  A statement widely accepted as truth. Bell-Shaped Curve  A curve which is the characteristic of a normal distribution, which is symmetrical about the mean. The area under the normal curve is 1.0. Beta Level  It is the probability of making an error due to the result of the chance variations when in actuality they are due to the differences of the result of the experimental manipulation or intervention. It is also referred to as the probability of making a Type II error. Bias  They are the influences that contribute to the distortions of the results Categorical Data  They are also referred to as the nominal data. They are for indicative purpose only Causal Analysis  An analysis that seeks to establish the cause and effect relationships between variables. Central Tendency  A measure that describes the central characteristic of the distribution. Comparability  It is the quality of two or more entities that are to be evaluated for their similarity and differences. Confidence Interval  A range of estimated values that provides the best estimate regarding the populations values. Confidence Level  It is the percentage which represents the number of times that a confidence interval will include the true population value. Consistency  It is the process in which similar responses are demonstrated throughout the activity / event. Constant  It is the value which does not change Descriptive Statistics  It is the basic statistics that is used to describe and summarize data. Focus Group  An interview conducted with a small group of people, all at one time, to explore ideas on a particular topic. Multivariate Analysis  It is the analysis of several independent variable on the dependent variable. Mutually Exclusive  It is when the happening of an event does not disturb or alters the happening of another event. for example, in tossing of coin, the appearance of head is mutually exclusive to the appearance of tail as any one of them say head, does not allow the other to happen simultaneously. Nominal Scale  It is a scale that allows for classifying of elements into several mutually exclusive categories which are based on defined features but no numeric. They are just used for identification purposes. For example, the shirts worn by players in a football match. The number on the shirts represent the identification of the player only. Normal Curve  It is the curve, which is bell shaped in structure. It is formed when the data having normal distribution is plotted. Normal Distribution  It is the distribution that describes a frequency distribution comprising of data points which resembles a bell shape structure. The normal distribution shows important properties that are necessary for performing various statistical tests for different types of applications. Null Hypothesis  It is the hypothesis that states that there is no difference among and between the groups. It is in sharp contrast to alternative hypothesis that states that between two or more groups there is some difference Observation Unit  It is the actual unit which is subjected to observation during the course of study. 6.15 Case study Let us assume that a manufacturer of the light bulbs wants to produce bulbs with a mean life of 1000 hours If the lifetime is shorter, he/ she will lose customers to his / her competitors; if the lifetime is longer, he / she will have a very high production cost because the filaments will be excessively thick. In order to see whether the production process is working properly a sample of the output is taken to test the hypothesis A two tailed test is used because he / she does not want to deviate significantly from 1000 hours in either direction. Therefore the null hypothesis is rejected.

The Single Child Policy In China

The Single Child Policy In China In 1978-1979 the Chinese government installed an ambitious program of market reform following the economic stagnation of Cultural Revolution. In mid 70-80 china was home of quarter of the worlds population who were having just 7% of world land. More than two third of the population were under the age of 30 years. The baby boomers of the year 1950-1960 were entering their reproductive years. So it was getting important to control the population for the economic reform and to an improvement in living standards, so they introduced one child policy. (Massachusetts medical Society, 2005) This policy consists of different set of rules and regulations .government governing the size of families, sometimes late marriages, child bearing and family planning. This also restricts to couple to one child for one couple but it still allow few cases like twins, rural couple , ethnic minorities and couples who are both only one children themselves. By this policy china controlled more than 250 million births between 1980 and 2000(BBC September, 2012) and about 400 million by 1979-2011(People Daily online, October 2011) This policy is a controversial issue within and outside the china, because how it was implemented, good and bad consequences of the negative social concerns. Due to this policy there were other problems and concerns rose which are against human rights. Forced abortions were increased, female infanticide and under reporting of female birth. These are the main reason of gender imbalance in china, but still after the survey done by Pew Research Center roughly 76% of people living in china accept this policy.(Pew Research Centre ,2012) As now we know about the policy and its implementation, merits and demerits, so now I have to take a clear stand is that policy is ethically justifiable or not and I will go with that is this policy is not ethically justifiable but there are a lot of examples which are proven that with this policy china has controlled population of country so I will be comparing both of the sides of the policy with final conclusion against this policy. First I will discuss about the demerits of over population. Over population is a condition where an organism number exceed the carrying capacity. This is a direct link between human population and its environment. The main reason for the over population is increase in birth and decline in mortality rate. The current population of china is 1319175364 which make china the first most populated country of the world. (US Census Bureau, 2012) China represents a full 20% of world population so every one in every five people on the earth is a Chinese.(Washington Institute of China Studies ,2007) So due to over population because other different problems also like: Healthy Living this is the one of the main concern of the people who is living there because the health resources are limited like fresh air, fresh pure clean water, and greenery which people all people are not getting. Equal opportunities-people living in china to them when comes to access some of the things like public sector jobs, examinations few people dont get those opportunities because either they are not rich enough to support or some other factors. Access to medical treatment- as china is growing up faster the amount of people getting sick and getting congenital disease are also increasing which is also directly related to the cost of treatment, government cant provide those expensive treatments to everyone so a lot of poor people die because of no access of hospital or clinics. Controlling big population- it is not an easy job for the government of china to control 1.5 billion people; police always have hard time when there is any riot, national events going on. Traffic problem. Due to over population need of vehicles on the road is increasing which is creating big heavy traffic jam on the road, and government always try hard to provide public transport but due to more number of passengers travelling that also become hard. Good quality higher education- As families had more number of children at their home which sometimes is also a problem i.e. children cant get good higher education reason behind this is education nowadays is expensive and parents cant afford all their kids the same education. Violation of human rights- like different activities happening often in china which violate human rights like female feticide, gang rapes, abortions.(Bridgeport.edu ,2012) So now I will talk about the advantages and disadvantages of one child policy. Advantages The growth of the population decreases: if there was no one child policy in china the population of china must be 2.4 billion today. By this Chinese people are getting more benefits like: Free/cheap health checkups. Their kids are getting god or best education. Women get extra three month maternity leave. Parents have good bond with children, like it will be easy to divide time with one child and it makes it easier to know each other and needs. Disadvantages They dont have any siblings and there is nothing like cousins called in china because everyone is child of the family. Forced Abortions: As we all know abortion are legal in china but having forced abortion is against human rights. Female Infanticide: People kill their daughter because they think they will have only one child and if thats a female then who will take family business and bring up family to generations. 87% of all married women use contraception and abortion which is also not healthy for the females health condition. Ethical Perspectives The one child policy raises many ethical concerns one individuals own liberty, collective rights and state sovereignty. We all understand that will less population there will less environment degradation and pollution but according to me whose rights are more important individual or collective? This one child policy in china asks questions towards the individual rights and collective rights in the community. As per Lockes view in any of the society an individual have the basic human right and more important their negative liberty and rights or the freedom to have choices for self development without other interference.(William Uzgalis John Locke,2006) This one child policy provide community growth which may provide higher quality of life i.e. can be serve malnutrition, good care of medical illness and social and economic problems are uncommon. Communitarians: As we all know china is a communist country so they have only one peoples party ruling the whole big nation. The communitarian argument is derived from Jean Jacques Rousseav Communitarian argue the survival of the community must be protected because individual member depend on it for their self identity, the organization of collective action and the production of public goods So this lighten the view that state of nature as they have not yet developed the capacity to reason . So a communitarian would for the individual thinks, thoughts, individual rights and autonomy for the benefits of the community. (Modern China, 465, 1987) Utilitarian Approaches: It is an ethical theory in which there are basically more happiness and reduced suffering which is based on the word utility. So as per china one child policy peoples behavioral choices are counted and those choices reflect their course of action. By increasing the pleasure and minimizing the pain china is using utilitarian approach perfectly. International Human Rights: Chinas one child policy is seems to be based on utilitarian approach. They argue that policy is installed according to the fairness standards as every family is entitled to have one child and in addition to this those families are getting financial incentive like bonus, better housing options and three months maternity leave which as per rule to international provisions of human rights but on the other side as per policy only one child is allowed per couple so communitarian would be against of those who claim individual reproductive right against the policy of single child.(American Political Science Review,2001) Western Asian Preferences of Individual Rights: China one child policy is mostly offended by the violation of human rights and laws. They argue that as western countries have their own official languages as a mean to protecting communal harmony and Identity similarly Chinese government has the right to implement of population related policies is the responsibility of each and every country and should take a stand into account the economic, social and environmental diversity with respect to all religious and ethical values at international conference on population development in (cairo 1994). This policy also disturbs the fundamental human right of every couple to decide freely the number and spacing of their children. Chinese government relative this policy as Duty to act responsibly in a manner which will benefit their family and community as whole (Population and Development review, 1996) Success and flaw of Chinas One Child Policy Chinas population is both the countrys greatest weakness and strength. China is world 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest exporter. The more population in china makes it cheap labor which attracted a lot of foreign investment. This policy accelerated chinas economic growth in past 2 decades which also helped to create highly educated skilled and more efficient work force. It was reported in 2001, there were almost 20,000 forced abortions and sterilization occurred to the people of Huai ji in Guangdong province of china because those people were not following the rules of this policy.(Telegraph Media Group,2012) After that in 2002 china stopped the physical force to force for the abortion, but still there are news on regular basis of abortion and violence. Even there is news about the killing of the babies during the pregnancy of eight months or its more horrifying of killing of baby during labor in birth canal or immediately after birth. Tons of thousands of children with birth defects, disabilities are handed over to state funded orphanages that often have poor facilities which now become house of adoption of girls for the rich western people. In 2001 there was official 55,000 adoptions registered. So what do you think are these children guaranteed a better life but I am pretty much sure that they will lose all traces of their Chinese identity? (Wei Guo Zhang, 2006) In addition to this one child policy also disturb the male -female birth rate ratio. The sex ratio in main land china is 118: 100. So this means there are 18 extra boys for every 100 girls born which compared to global natural baseline of 103:100. Even the state population and family planning commission admit this problem and think this will create big problem in coming future i.e. finding partner by the time they will reach adulthood or reproductive age. As according to survey there will be 30 million more men than women in 2020. (BBC, 2012) Since 90s there is other problem rising weather this single child will be over pampered. There have been seen many over pampered children in society with poor social communication and cooperation skills. As in upper text I mentioned about the over pampered children, so now here I am going to focus on the policy positive and negative effects of single child . As per (Quoss and Zhao,1995) parents are usually the most important socialization agents in their young age. This gives an impact on their child to learn about social relationship. In addition to this parent- child relationship are complicated cultural, ideological, political, economic and social factor but main can be psychological, cultural and structural to understand parent child relationship. It is assumed those children are the empty vessels which are filled with parents socially defined values. So mostly children learn from parents attitude and behavior. If child is not recognized as an active social person this means he is influenced by parents. These changes in the family structure and size have some major effects i.e. shorting of family tree, weakening of cooperation in the groups and the changes in the way how parents treat their children. According to Cardwell wealth- Flow theory (1982, 1976) the wealth from younger to older generations is related to high fertility rate same as wealth flow from the older to the younger generation is related to low fertility rate. But in China they have only one child there is nothing like that seen which either improve or spoil the parent -child relation. The nations one child policy has lead to the reduced number of births which have highlighted children value in the family and caused more flow of family resources towards that only child. Chinas successful implementation of population control policy shortened the way to Cordwells equilibrium of wealth flow and birth rate declination. Population and Socio Economic Development This over growing population even one child will be creating big problems by 2040. There will be four main challenges faced by Chinese population. Agriculture : Food challenge: It will be a problem of producing sufficient grain for the expending population, as country is growing faster, people are moving to cities and no one is doing more agriculture and because of population explosion there will not be enough spaces to grow crops which will give Chinese community a very hard time in upcoming years. Employment Challenge: It is one of the main signals to economic performance which is correlated with income distribution, poverty and social stability. Before rural people used to depend on agriculture but now its hard to depend as living standards are getting high and 40% of rural labor are not fully utilized or they are under employed and need to be re employed.(Taylor and Banister 1991 ; Shen and Spence 1995) Urbanization challenge: fast pace industrialization and urbanization will be a drastic change in rural-urban population shift. The speed of urbanization was very slow in 1970s as compared to other developing counties (shen, 1994). A large number of towns and small cities are immerged to bigger cities. Old cities are rapidly expanding .Shanghai. increased its urban area from 141 to 230 square kilometer; rapid urbanization resulted in the arable land available Homosexuality In china Associated with One Child Policy. There is also one other problem arising in china because having a single child and that child being homosexual. Homosexuality is legal in china since 1997, but this created a lot of problems in Chinese local community. Chinese couples try and do a lot of efforts to have a son in their family and what if that son is homosexual that can be a big major tragedy in the family. Many gay and lesbian commit suicide because its not much common in there. Zheng estimates there is about 27-30 million homosexual people living in china from which 18-20 million are gay man and 9 to 10 million are lesbian women. So homosexuals are not accepted by social customs at home or at work place. This creates two other different problems: They dont have freedom to enjoy their personal life -> It is seen that gay man and gay women get married to each other as homowives under a formal union they have normal marriages but allowing each other to conduct their homosexual relation outside. Many stories came up how gay man starting loving each other. some said they cant find the right female partner so they changed their self to homosexuality or bisexual and other say the girls dont want to leave parental house as they are the only daughter who want to stay with family.( The New York Times,2012 ) The Effect of China one child policy 30 years To control the population china government and Chinese people did very hard work and much sacrifice to limit the population growth with one child per family. So in condition to hold this population growth there is a heavy reliance on long term contraception with IU device and sterilizations together accounting for more that they dont have any other options except which they heard from health workers recommend for family planning. This helped in 25% decreased in abortion rates. This policy is reduction in the total fertility rate before between 1970-1979 the fertility was 5.9 to 2.9 but after this its less stabilized at approximately 1.7. There are some signals that may be the traditional thinking for boys will change. As a survey done by National family and Reproductive Health reports say 37 percent of young urban women said they have no preference with the sex of the kid either its male or female but on other side 45 percent said the ideal family is one boy and one girl. Ratio of old age Dependency The rapid decrease in birth rate with stable and improved life it led to increased proportion of old people in the community. In 1965 the population of 65 year old people was 5% in 1982 which now is 7.5 percent which is expected to be 15 percent by 2025. (World Bank, 2012) Thats one reason in urban areas the couple who themselves are single children are allowed to have other second kid. The future of chinas one child policy: The Chinese government is facing an important challenge, first will be the need to balance the basic population right of reproduction with population growth. 10 million people are adding to Chinese population every year which is equal to the population of Belgium. Relaxation of this policy can be considered because of baby bomber are getting older, but increased wealth and freedom is not allowing government to relax this policy. End of Cheap Labor: Professor Cai Feng- a Chinese labor economist estimated there will a downfall in the labor force by 1.5 percent points by 2015 and will decrease further in 2016-2020. A fast pace decline of the labor force will cause shortages and rapid increase in wages which will be weaken the chinas export industry in the international marked effecting economic growth .(BBC,2012) Conclusion: The people republic if china and its one child policy remains an international concept as in means of regulation, human rights, birth and fertility, national duties, ethics and principles. In 30 years of this policy china have created dramatic results of controlling population and limiting total fertility rate at 1.7 births per women. It also helped to control the problems which can be occurred with over population. On the other side this policy also created drastic effect on highly unbalanced sex-ratio between male and female. Many couples cant find the suitable match for each other. There is an increase in female infanticide and more use of contraceptive methods. An increased social and economic demand on small families due to aging is also common. According to Xinhua the national press agency of china china have paid a lot of political and social cost for this policy but still it resulted in social conflict, high administrative cost and let to gender imbalance too(Xinhua, 2012). My reaction to this one child policy is that they should not make it very strict at the starting. Second child in family bring the fine of $3500 which is almost equal to the income of 10 year of a poor farmer. Many Chinese women commit suicide under the pressures of one child policy(Amnesty International,2012) . Some rich people who can afford $3500they have two kids in family which is not equal to other resident of china. For poor if they cant pay the fine they have to pay their fines with 200kg of rice. Families in Guangzi province are afraid of breaking rules because they are already poor and this gives them hard time paying the fine. This is the reason of disturbance in sex ratio. I think Chinese government should educate people to the benefits of having lesser children but not to force them for abortion. Couples should have their own freedom they whether they want children or not. The Government should educate people and promote to have more female babies to equal the uneven sex ratio. There is a high divorce rate involving women whose one child turn out to be a girl however the laws have changed by those women have to suffer physical assault at home. It is clearly see there are many advantages and disadvantages of chinas one child policy but when it comes to health, law and ethics it is not justified because of many dilemmas on the ethical ground.

A Mans versus a Womans Mind in Ernest Hemingways Up in Michigan :: essays research papers

The difference between a man’s and a woman’s mind, in Ernest Hemingway’s Up in Michigan Many of the narrative strategies Hemingway applied to his war stories in In Our Time he had already practiced or applied in earlier stories not concerned specifically with the war. One such is "Up In Michigan", which Hemingway had originally intended as the first story of In Our Time, but had to exclude because of its controversial presentation of sexual relationships. From his mother to his sisters to his four wives, Hemingway could not help being influenced by the strong, cultured women who surrounded him all his life. We notice, right from the beginning of his life, that Ernest Hemingway was confronted to two opposite ways of thinking, the Manly way, and the Woman way. This will be an important point in his writing and in his personal life, he will show a great interest in this opposition of thinking. In this short story, Hemingway uses simple words, which turn out to become a complex analysis of the male and female minds. With this style of writing, he will show us how different the two sexes’ minds work, by confronting them to each other in a way that we can easily capture their different ways of working. The scene in which the characters are set in is simple, and by the use of the simplicity of the words and of the setting, he is able to put us in-front of this dilemma, he will put us in front of a situation, and we will see it in both sexes point of view, which will lead us to the fundamental question, why are our minds so different? Hemingway can be seen as a women's man, he was attracted to women, and marriage did not prevent him from having affairs. Whatever his life was, one of the main themes in his writing remained his determination to understand the difference between the two genders. This difference always mattered in his texts, as we will see in this short story, written by Hemingway, â€Å"Up In Michigan†. In this story, Hemingway tries to tell the story in the way he thinks a woman would see and live it, during the story, he will alternate the two point of views, the man’s (Jim), and the woman’s (Liz), and he will end the story on Liz’s view.

Reality or Illusion Essay -- essays research papers

In Andrew and Larry Wachowski’s 1999 film, The Matrix, and Plato’s Republic, â€Å"On Shadows and Realities,?reality and illusion are one in the same. The Wachowski brothers allows the viewer to see how reality and illusion can be mistaken for the other, using a number of contrasting ideas found in Plato's analogy of the Cave, showing that at times the dream world can be safer than real life. The matrix is a simulation that creates an imaginary world where people are prisoners from reality, much like Plato's mythological The Cave. The cave holds prisoners inside a dark cave, chained in way prohibiting them from turning their heads, only able to see what is in front of them. All they see is a wall that displays images of what appears to be of people or animals passing behind them. These reflections or images are all the prisoners know of the world outside the cave. They see only what the marionette players want them to see: projections of objects that are not real but seem real because they have never seen the real world. People in the matrix only see what the machines show, making it difficult to wake up from a continuous dream show, trapped in an illusional world unable to break free. However, some do break free. Through much effort, Plato's freed man escapes, only to face a life of confusion and fear. With the matrix, most die trying to escape from it, but once free are just as confused as Plato’s freed man. His first reaction is to return to the cave, which is familiar and s...

Style: Strunk & White vs. Williams :: Comapre Contrast Comparison Essays

Style: Strunk & White vs. Williams Writing correctly is something that many people find hard to do! I know this, because I use to feel the same way. I have had many English classes in my time, where teachers would sit next to me, and correct my errors sentence by sentence as I went along. All the while asking me if I understood what why what I did was wrong. I remember saying that I understood, but I really didn't. That was something that I didn't like at the time, but I am now very appreciative of the fact that someone was there. With today's kids, most teachers don't take that needed time and help them to get on track with their writing. Because of this, I find that both Strunk and White, The Elements of Style, and Williams, Style: Toward Clarity and Grace to be very helpful. After reading them, I know that they can both be used as "handy" reference tools for today's writers. The one thing that stuck out in my mind about both of these books is that they both agree that there are rules. The difference between them is that Williams explains in his version of the rules in a much more through manner; he provides detailed examples. Whereas Strunk and White, their book is much shorter. The examples that they use are pretty straight forward, and the book in general is easy to follow. After I was done reading both of these books, I was immediately ready to argue that the better of the two was The Elements of Style by Strunk and white. My feeling now is that Williams is the better of the two. A factor that I took into consideration was the tone and layout of both books. Strunk and white has a better layout, but the tone is directed to a certain type of reader. The profile of the reader that would fit The Elements of Style is an upper class, educated, Caucasian man. In Williams, the layout is something that can be tweaked, but the tone is for everyone. At first, I was not looking forward to reading either of these books; in the end I am glad that I did. I know that I have problems, when it comes to my own writing and I liked that both of these books wrote about things that I was able to relate to.

Technique of Indirect Characterization in “The Great Gatsby”

There is no single work of literature in the world, where a full, completed characterization of a person would be, no matter if he/she is the main character, or does not play any role in the novel at all. The main idea is to develop an image of a character through actions of others, and as it gets more complicated, the greater novel becomes. In Fitzgerald’s â€Å"The Great Gatsby† the author uses the technique of indirect characterization to make the reader feel the atmosphere of the society of the nineteen-twenties by analyzing its behavior. Gatsby, the true representative of all the greatness, richness, and beautifulness of the period, plays the main role in the novel by being the most mysterious and fabulous person. This is the reason why everyone talks about him and creates various rumors about his enigmatic life. Nick and Jordan also play important roles. Their main job is to transmit the Gatsby’s character. During their first meeting they mentioned Gatsby’s name only once, but then it became usual and kept being talked about. When they first kissed, Jordan had already told Nick about Gatsby’s love to Daisy. These discussions tied them together. And as the relationship between Nick and Jordan becomes closer, more information the reader gets from the novel. There is another situation when Nick finds out some negative characteristics of Jordan, such as carelessness, the unsuccessful time period of Gatsby’s life becomes being known by Nick, and so, by the reader. Nick’s company makes Gatsby feel more comfortable and opened. He is not afraid of being trustful with him, because recognizes an unaffected person in Nick, it reminds Gatsby of himself. Nick, in his turn, finds out some characteristics of Gatsby, and creates an image of a swift, strong, and sometimes embarrassed man. The idea of manipulating characters in order to describe someone in a novel makes the reader think on the work, try to reorganize thoughts, and complete the image of the character.

Deception Point Page 51

â€Å"A decade. And not only is the NASA space station not yet fully operational, but the project so far has cost twenty times your bid. As an American taxpayer, I am sickened.† A grumble of agreement circled the room. Sexton let his eyes move, reconnecting with the group. â€Å"I am well aware,† the senator said, addressing everyone now, â€Å"that several of your companies have offered to launch private space shuttles for as little as fifty million dollars per flight.† More nods. â€Å"And yet NASA undercuts you by charging only thirty-eight million dollars per flight†¦ even though their actual per flight cost is over one hundred and fifty million dollars!† â€Å"It's how they keep us out of space,† one of the men said. â€Å"The private sector cannot possibly compete with a company that can afford to run shuttle flights at a four hundred percent loss and still stay in business.† â€Å"Nor should you have to,† Sexton said. Nods all around. Sexton turned now to the austere entrepreneur beside him, a man whose file Sexton had read with interest. Like many of the entrepreneurs funding Sexton's campaign, this man was a former military engineer who had become disillusioned with low wages and government bureaucracy and had abandoned his military post to seek his fortune in aerospace. â€Å"Kistler Aerospace,† Sexton said, shaking his head in despair. â€Å"Your company has designed and manufactured a rocket that can launch payloads for as little as two thousand dollars per pound compared to NASA's costs of ten thousand dollars per pound.† Sexton paused for effect. â€Å"And yet you have no clients.† â€Å"Why would I have any clients?† the man replied. â€Å"Last week NASA undercut us by charging Motorola only eight hundred and twelve dollars per pound to launch a telecomm satellite. The government launched that satellite at a nine hundred percent loss!† Sexton nodded. Taxpayers were unwittingly subsidizing an agency that was ten times less efficient than its competition. â€Å"It has become painfully clear,† he said, his voice darkening, â€Å"that NASA is working very hard to stifle competition in space. They crowd out private aerospace businesses by pricing services below market value.† â€Å"It's the Wal-Marting of space,† the Texan said. Damn good analogy, Sexton thought. I'll have to remember that. Wal-Mart was notorious for moving into a new territory, selling products below market value, and driving all local competition out of business. â€Å"I'm goddamned sick and tired,† the Texan said, â€Å"of having to pay millions in business taxes so Uncle Sam can use that money to steal my clients!† â€Å"I hear you,† Sexton said. â€Å"I understand.† â€Å"It's the lack of corporate sponsorships that's killing Rotary Rocket,† a sharply dressed man said. â€Å"The laws against sponsorship are criminal!† â€Å"I couldn't agree more.† Sexton had been shocked to learn that another way NASA entrenched its monopoly of space was by passing federal mandates banning advertisements on space vehicles. Instead of allowing private companies to secure funding through corporate sponsorships and advertising logos-the way, for example, professional race car drivers did-space vehicles could only display the words USA and the company name. In a country that spent $185 billion a year on advertising, not one advertising dollar ever found its way into the coffers of private space companies. â€Å"It's robbery,† one of the men snapped. â€Å"My company hopes to stay in business long enough to launch the country's first tourist-shuttle prototype next May. We expect enormous press coverage. The Nike Corporation just offered us seven million in sponsorship dollars to paint the Nike swoosh and ‘Just do it!' on the side of the shuttle. Pepsi offered us twice that for ‘Pepsi: The choice of a new generation.' But according to federal law, if our shuttle displays advertising, we are prohibited from launching it!† â€Å"That's right,† Senator Sexton said. â€Å"And if elected, I will work to abolish that antisponsorship legislation. That is a promise. Space should be open for advertising the way every square inch of earth is open to advertising.† Sexton gazed out now at his audience, his eyes locking in, his voice growing solemn. â€Å"We all need to be aware, however, that the biggest obstacle to privatization of NASA is not laws, but rather, it is public perception. Most Americans still hold a romanticized view of the American space program. They still believe NASA is a necessary government agency.† â€Å"It's those goddamned Hollywood movies!† one man said. â€Å"How many NASA-saves-the-world-from-a-killer-asteroid movies can Hollywood make, for Christ's sake? It's propaganda!† The plethora of NASA movies coming out of Hollywood, Sexton knew, was simply a matter of economics. Following the wildly popular movie Top Gun-a Tom Cruise jet pilot blockbuster that played like a two-hour advertisement for the U.S. Navy-NASA realized the true potential of Hollywood as a public relations powerhouse. NASA quietly began offering film companies free filming access to all of NASA's dramatic facilities-launchpads, mission control, training facilities. Producers, who were accustomed to paying enormous on-site licensing fees when they filmed anywhere else, jumped at the opportunity to save millions in budget costs by making NASA thrillers on â€Å"free† sets. Of course, Hollywood only got access if NASA approved the script. â€Å"Public brainwashing,† a Hispanic grunted. â€Å"The movies aren't half as bad as the publicity stunts. Sending a senior citizen into space? And now NASA is planning an all-female shuttle crew? All for publicity!† Sexton sighed, his tone turning tragic. â€Å"True, and I know I don't have to remind you what happened back in the eighties when the Department of Education was bankrupt and cited NASA as wasting millions that could be spent on education. NASA devised a PR stunt to prove NASA was education-friendly. They sent a public school teacher into space.† Sexton paused. â€Å"You all remember Christa McAuliffe.† The room fell silent. â€Å"Gentlemen,† Sexton said, stopping dramatically in front of the fire. â€Å"I believe it is time Americans understood the truth, for the good of all of our futures. It's time Americans understand that NASA is not leading us skyward, but rather is stifling space exploration. Space is no different than any other industry, and keeping the private sector grounded verges on a criminal act. Consider the computer industry, in which we see such an explosion of progress that we can barely keep up from week to week! Why? Because the computer industry is a free-market system: It rewards efficiency and vision with profits. Imagine if the computer industry were government-run? We would still be in the dark ages. We're stagnating in space. We should put space exploration into the hands of the private sector where it belongs. Americans would be stunned by the growth, jobs, and realized dreams. I believe we should let the free-market system spur us to new heights in space. If elected, I will make it my personal mission to unlock the doors to the final frontier and let them swing wide open.† Sexton lifted his snifter of cognac. â€Å"My friends, you came here tonight to decide if I am someone worthy of your trust. I hope I am on the way to earning it. In the same way it takes investors to build a company, it takes investors to build a presidency. In the same way corporate stockholders expect returns, you as political investors expect returns. My message to you tonight is simple: Invest in me, and I will never forget you. Ever. Our missions are one and the same.† Sexton extended his glass toward them in a toast. â€Å"With your help, my friends, soon I will be in the White House†¦ and you will all be launching your dreams.†